Recent global events have highlighted how quickly fuel markets can shift and how those changes can affect essential services. Several social care providers have already raised concerns with us about the potential impact of rising petrol prices on staff travel and the increasing cost of heating oil for care homes, particularly in rural areas where many services are not connected to mains gas and journey distances may be long.
Petrol and diesel prices have risen within weeks of the conflict escalating, with diesel reaching a 16-month high and average pump prices increasing rapidly. At the same time, heating oil prices have surged for households and businesses that rely on oil-fired systems, with reports that delivery costs have risen sharply as global supply tightens.
Energy analysts warn that sustained disruption could feed through into wider inflation, affecting transport costs, heating bills and supply chains. The Office for Budget Responsibility has indicated inflation could be pushed back up to 3%.
For social care providers, disruptions to fuel supply can have immediate operational consequences from staff being unable to travel to heating systems failing during cold weather.
In Norfolk we estimate more than 25% of residential care settings do not have access to mains gas. These care homes and supported living services rely on heating oil, LPG, or other fuels to maintain safe indoor temperatures and provide hot water. At the same time, homecare services depend on petrol or diesel to enable staff to travel between clients – which can be large distances in a rural county.
Ensuring resilience to fuel supply disruption is therefore an important part of protecting residents, maintaining service continuity, and safeguarding vulnerable people.
Why fuel disruption matters in social care
Previous petrol supply disruptions showed real operational impact; surveys during the 2021 fuel crisis found 73% of homecare providers were affected by difficulties obtaining fuel. This then led to concerns about missed visits and disruption to care delivery.
Staff are the most critical component in all care provision, and in a large rural county anything that impacts the ability for people to drive to work can have a critical effect.
The overlooked risk: heating oil in care homes
While transport fuel often receives the most attention during shortages, heating oil disruption can pose an equally serious risk for social care.
Many rural care homes and other residential care setting rely on oil-fired heating systems because they are not connected to the gas grid. If deliveries are delayed or supplies become scarce, heating and hot water may be affected.
For residents, particularly older people and those with chronic health conditions, cold indoor environments can increase health risks.
Research on cold homes and health highlights links between low indoor temperatures and increased risk of respiratory illness, cardiovascular problems, and excess winter mortality.
More broadly, in our input into the Norfolk County Council fee review process, we highlighted the financial crisis effecting social care providers, driven by insufficient investment and rising costs. Increases in fuel prices and higher inflation will exacerbate this situation. Providers have reported that increases in heating oil costs have already wiped out the value of the 3.2% fee increase provided by Norfolk County Council.
Information for Care Providers effected for fuel supply or cost issues
The UK government maintains a National Emergency Plan for Fuel (NEP-F) which outlines measures to manage national fuel shortages and prioritise essential services if supply falls significantly below demand.
The local government association has a publication highlighting how to support the social care sector when fuel supply is disrupted.
Fuel disruption and other emergencies are coordinated locally through Local Resilience Forums (LRFs).
LRFs bring together organisations including:
- Local authorities
- Emergency services
- NHS organisations
- Infrastructure providers
These partnerships coordinate emergency planning and response for major incidents.
The Norfolk Resilience Forum provides guidance encouraging organisations to develop business continuity plans and identify potential risks to their operations.
Norfolk Care association has already been in contact with Norfolk County Council to highlight providers concerns. During the last fuel crisis, Norfolk County Council worked closely with Norfolk Care Association to support providers. This included information about where fuel was reported to be available, as well as a ‘pass letter’ setting out the work being undertaken by care sector staff, to encourage forecourts to facilitate access to fuel for these individuals if informal prioritisation schemes were in place.
We will provide updates as the situation develops.
What social care providers can do to prepare
Ensure business continuity plans and business impact assessment are up to date. Check that staff are aware of them, that plans for activation, use and communication are clear and understood. You can find more information on business continuity plans here.
Identifying clients at higher risk
Some clients are particularly vulnerable to cold conditions, including:
- People with respiratory illness
- People with cardiovascular conditions
- Frail older adults
- Residents with limited mobility.
Whilst for many providers this may cover all clients, ensuring appropriate prioritisation is critical. Care plans should consider how these individuals will be protected if heating systems or care delivery is disrupted.
Maintaining supplier relationships
For heating oil, providers should ensure they have:
- Up-to-date supplier contact details
- Alternative suppliers identified
- Clear ordering procedures
Where possible, providers may wish to discuss contingency arrangements with suppliers during periods of high demand. Ensure orders are placed well in advance of running low.
For vehicles, the government collates fuel information. There are a range of way to access this information including apps like Fuel Finder that show local petrol and diesel pricing information.
Residential Settings
Things to consider:
- Monitoring fuel levels: Care homes that rely on heating oil should regularly check tank levels, particularly during winter months. Many organisations adopt higher reorder thresholds during colder periods, for example, ordering when tanks reach 40–50% capacity rather than waiting until levels are low. This reduces the risk of running out of fuel if deliveries are delayed.
- Monitoring indoor temperatures and hot water: Maintaining safe temperatures within care environments is essential for resident wellbeing. Careful monitoring in all areas can ensure a safe temperature is maintained, but also identify when and where heating can be reduced to save fuel. Similarly, ensure hot water is heated only to an appropriate temperature and the right amount of hot water is created and used.
Mitigations
Consider mitigation measures such as:
- Maintaining designated warm areas in only parts of the building
- Having alternative heating sources such as electric on stand-by for either room heating or hot water
- Accommodating staff on-site if safe staffing levels are at risk due to transport disruptions
Fuel supply disruption and homecare services
Consider mitigation measures such as:
- Prioritising critical visits
- Reorganising staff routes geographically
- Allocating staff to clients located nearby
- Encouraging car-sharing where appropriate.
- Using provider vehicles and maximising occupancy
Longer-term resilience: reducing reliance on fossil fuels
Beyond immediate contingency planning, care providers may wish to consider how to reduce their reliance on heating oil and other fossil fuels. This can improve both environmental sustainability and operational resilience.
Potential alternatives include:
- Heat pumps: Air source or ground source heat pumps can provide heating and hot water with lower reliance on fuel deliveries.
- Biomass heating: Biomass systems use renewable materials such as wood pellets or chips to generate heat.
- Solar thermal systems: Solar thermal technology can provide renewable hot water, reducing reliance on fuel-powered boilers.
- Hybrid heating systems: Hybrid systems combine renewable technologies with conventional boilers to provide additional resilience.
- Electric & Hybrid Vehicles: The use of electric or hybrid fleet or pool cars may be an option.
Although a transition to new heating systems requires investment, reducing dependence on oil deliveries can reduce exposure to fuel price volatility and supply disruption.
A fuel resilience checklist for care providers
Care providers may wish to consider the following questions when reviewing their preparedness:
Heating systems
- Do we know how long our heating oil supply will last?
- What is our minimum reorder level?
- Do we have alternative suppliers?
Client safety
- Which clients are most vulnerable to cold conditions?
- How would we maintain safe temperatures if heating systems fail?
Transport
- How would staff reach clients if petrol or diesel becomes scarce?
- Are care visits prioritised in case of disruption?
Planning
- Is fuel disruption included in our business continuity plan?
- Have we conducted a Business Impact Analysis to understand the risks?
- Do we have access to sufficient cash-flow to adjust to significant price spikes?
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